Issue 182, article 7

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DOI:https://doi.org/10.15407/kvt182.02.084

Kibern. vyčisl. teh., 2015, Issue 182, pp.

Krivova O.A., Kozak L.M.

International Research and Training Center for Information Technologies and
Systems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and Ministry of Education
and Science of Ukraine (Kiev)

СOMPLEX ESTIMATION OF REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT

Introduction. Several studies are being conducted in the world to measure developmental disparities between countries, regions and territorial units. Composite indicators (or indexes) are used whenever a lot of variables are needed for evaluating developmental disparities between territories. Demographic variables are considered as important indicators of socio-economic development of regions. We show how cluster analysis can be combined with elements of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to construct composite index regional demographic development of Ukraine.
The purpose of this article is the development of regional socioeconomic systems analysis methodology and construction of composite indicators of regional demographic development.
Results. We have used 5 territorial social-demographic indicators: 1) total fertility rate; 2) death rate of children under age of five; 3) life expectation at birth; 4) survivorship probabilities for men from 20 to 65 years; 5) survivorship probabilities for women from 20 to 65 years. The following strategy can be pursued in order to construct composite index . First, a cluster analysis (algorithms Ward and K-means) for defining clusters of regions based on the value of the individual indicators is used. The result of the cluster analysis is typological clusters of the selected regions. Second, such as each cluster can be characterized with a centroid, these centroids must be ordered from best to worst. Weights of composite index are calculated as coefficients of the best linear regression model of preference function.
Conclusion. The composite index of regional demographic development allows to assess the degree of variance in regional demographic development and ranking of regions.
Keywords: clustering, a composite indicator, the index of regional demographic development, ordered classification.

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Received 01.06.2015