Issue 183, article 6

DOI:https://doi.org/10.15407/kvt183.01.080
Gorban Andrey E., PhD (Medicine), Director of Ukrainian Centre of Scientific Medical Information and Patent-Licence Provision of Ministry of Health of Ukraine, av. Moskovska, 19, Kiev, 04655,
e-mail: minf@ukr.net

Kochina Marina L., Dr of Biology, Prof., Professor of Clinical Informatics and Information Technologies Department of Kharkiv Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Korchagincev st., 58, Kharkov, 61176,
e-mail: m_kochina@yahoo.com

FORECASTING MODEL OF INNOVATIVE EFFICIENCY OF RESEARCH WORK IN THE HEALTH CARE. Kibernetika i vyčislitel’naâ tehnika, 2016, issue 183, pp. 79-91

Introduction. When planning research work (research) predicting the effectiveness of its innovative performance, which is crucial in determining the prospects of its funding is of great importance.

The purpose of the article is to give scientific substantiation and development of forecasting model of innovative efficiency of research.

Methods. Scoring system developed by the scientific research results and products, the scale of expert assessments were used. To construct forecasting model of fuzzy logic was used.

Results. The usage of fuzzy logic revealed informative indicators for predicting of the innovative effectiveness of research, which include peer reviews: the novelty of the research, the expected medical effect of the introduction of the results, level of methodical and material base of research, qualification of basic performers. The usage of the model of expert estimates forecast the effectiveness of research at the planning stage.

Conclusion. The usage of this method of scoring the results of research and forecasting model of its effectiveness can be the basis for a decision on the financing of the work at the planning stage and allow us to determine the rating of scientific staff at its completion.

Keywords: forecasting model, fuzzy logic, innovation efficiency, the research work.

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Received 14.12.2015